Almost 90 million people in an area that is about 3 feet above sea level, at low tide. What would have to change to make Mogadishu – torn apart by civil war – a city with more than 30 million inhabitants in 2100?

City population projections for the world's 200 largest cities in 2075 from Hoornweg & Pope's GCIF Working Paper No.

But why believe me - from the brief article itself: "Projecting city growths typified by Lagos growing form 10.6 million in 2010 to 88.3 million in 2100 obviously call for a fulsome measure of skepticism; many variables could change.". Fritz Lang's Metropolis was an elegant but industrial pile of Art Deco towers inspired by the Manhattan of the 1920s. It's not having to grow food or have water near where it's consumed. That may be true and may not. 1 million now and many have no potable water, scrambling for food, no paying jobs etc. What about New Mombasa? Nagpur, Maharashtra State, India: 9,131,000.

After a period of growth, Asia is also expected to shrink, ending up with a population more or less the same as today. The five largest cities in 2100 do not vary much but their populations do – under scenario 1, Lagos has 61.0 million inhabitants in 2100 but over 100 million under scenario 3.

When a car goes at maximum speed into a wall, the null hypothesis says that the car is going to continue going at full speed, but in reality the car is going to crash against the wall... For Lilongwe in geographically tiny, landlocked Malawi to reach 40 million people it would require political union with a larger country or development into a trading dynamo like strategically situated Hong Kong and Singapore. .

No they won't. They do nothing but take past trends, map them onto current populations, and do the calculations. Instead of looking 84 years ahead to 2100, why not go back 84 years to 1932: who would have predicted that the modest city of Sao Paulo with less than a million inhabitants in 1932 would come to be the largest industrial city in South America by 1980?

What a projection! A new paper by Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope projects the world's largest cities and their populations in 2100 under three different scenarios: The world's five largest cities in 2100, according to different socio-economic scenarios. Natural resources (water supply, fertile soil) are limited, and the ability to throw money and energy at the problem (like Dubai is currently doing) is not necessarily going to be sustainable in the long-term.

Paris is predicted to be the 67th biggest city in the world, with London the only other European city in the top 100, at 86th. It reminds me of projections for the population of Mexico City back in the late '70s and early '80s.

It's hard to imagine the ecosystem in places like Sana'a, N'Djamena, Baghdad, or Cairo supporting these massive megacities. China will no longer exist in 2100. While the future will likely be different in unfathomable ways, the null hypothesis is to assume that current trends will continue. Tokyo (2020): Hey, we're lookin' pretty good Africa's population is growing at a much faster rate than the rest of the world. Well we can be pretty sure for the next 30 years barring any major disasters or wars.

What ridiculous methodology. The following is a list of the 100 largest cities in Africa by city proper population using the most recent official estimate. Top Ten Cities Through History, animation showing the ten largest cities throughout history according to Chandler; Top 20 Most Populated Cities in The World 1500 to 2100 (History + Projection) This page was last edited on 7 September 2020, at … Elsewhere, the population grows rapidly, particularly in rural areas, causing significant land use change and environmental degradation. What will happen to the forests and the oceans?

What? Extremely dubious, as others have pointed out. Coastal cities at high risk from climate change may lose new investment to inland cities. Mega-cities need mega economies, even if, for some, much of their economy is informal. Sure, but it's unrealistic. These Are Forecast to Be the World’s Biggest Cities in 2100: New York Doesn’t Crack the Top 20, 90. There are some exceptions – for instance cities that become 'large' because of influxes of refugees or internally displaced persons. This population dive is fueled by Japan's low birth rate and anti-immigration policies.

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